Published On 20-06-2022
The tenure of President Ram Nath Kovind will come to an end on July 24, 2022, and an election will be held to fill the position of the 16th President of India.
The schedule for the Presidential poll has been announced. The election will be held on July 18, with results being declared on July 21.
Last date for making nominations: June 29
Last date for scrutiny of nominations: June 30
Last date for withdrawal of candidature: July 2
Date of polling: July 18
Counting of votes: July 21
TMC chief Mamata Banerjee has opted to skip the meeting convened by NCP chief Sharad Pawar to choose the opposition camp's presidential candidate. In place of Mamata Banerjee, Abhishek Banerjee, a senior TMC leader, will attend the meeting in Delhi.
Notably, earlier Mamata had convened a meeting of Opposition leaders to formulate a strategy for the upcoming Presidential poll. In the June 15 meeting, it was decided that a common candidate, who will "uphold the democratic ethos of the country", will be chosen as the opposition nominee.
Banerjee had given the name of Pawar. The latter, however, opted to refuse the proposal. Later, National Conference chief Farooq Abdullah also turned down the offer to be a presidential candidate, saying he would like to contribute to Jammu and Kashmir.
With no certain nominee for polls, the big question is - Who will be the next president of India? And, how is the President of India elected? Let's dive in.
According to Article 54 of the Indian Constitution, the President of India can only be elected by the members of an electoral college, which includes the elected members of both Houses of Parliament and the elected members of the Legislative Assemblies of states and the Union Territories of Delhi and Puducherry.
The electoral college has 776 members of Parliament - 543 Lok Sabha MPs and 233 Rajya Sabha MPs, and 4,809 members of state legislative assemblies.
Since the value of the vote of each elector (MP/MLA) is predetermined, the value of electoral college is 10,86,431 votes.
The value is set at 708 for each MP (which is likely to go down to 700 in July presidential elections). For an MLA, the value is calculated by a formula involving the population (based on the 1971 Census) of the state he/she represents; as a result, the value varies from state to state.
For Example- Each MLA from Uttar Pradesh carries the highest value of 208 among all states. The 403 UP MLAs together have a total value of 83,824 and the 80 MPs from the state have a total vote value of 56,640. With this, the overall value of votes of MPs and MLAs from the state goes to 1.4 lakh, giving them nearly 12.7 percent weightage.
The vote value for an MLA in smaller states like Punjab is 118, 64 in Uttarakhand and it is 20 in Goa; which means the total value of Punjab is 13,572, Uttarakhand 4,480 and Goa 800.
MLAs in respective states and Union territories, as well as MPs in Parliament, are given ballot papers (green for MPs and pink for MLAs) to cast their votes when the nominations are filed.
Furthermore, this time the value of the vote of a Member of Parliament is likely to drop to 700 due to the absence of a legislative assembly in Jammu and Kashmir.
The winner of the presidential race is not the candidate who receives the most votes, but the candidate who receives the most votes above a certain quota.
After calculating the sum value of votes polled by each candidate, the returning officer adds up the value of all valid votes polled and the quota is determined by dividing the total of valid votes by 2 and adding one to the quotient.
For Example - The total value of valid votes cast by all candidates is 1,00,001. The quota required for the win will be calculated by dividing 1,00,001 by 2 and adding 1 to the quotient, i.e., 50,000. 50 + 1 (.50 called the remainder is ignored). Hence, the quota will be 50,000 + 1 = 50,001.
If no one receives enough votes to meet the quota, the candidate with the lowest votes is eliminated.
Anyone who is an Indian citizen and meets certain additional criteria can run for President.
A presidential candidate must be 35 years old and qualified for election to the Lok Sabha, or House of People. The candidate is not allowed to hold any office of profit.
Additionally, at least 50 proposers and seconders, who can be state or national public officials, must formally support the Presidential candidate. This rule was put in place to avoid bogus nominations by guaranteeing that candidates who have no chance of winning do not run for President.
In the presidential election, which follows the proportional representation system, a single transferable vote is used. The ballot paper has no election symbols and consists of two columns.
In the first column, the names of the candidates are listed while the order of preference is listed in the second column.
A member of the electoral college casts their vote by putting figure 1 next to the candidate's name in the space provided. The voter can write the numbers 2, 3, 4, and so on next to the names of the contenders on the voting paper to indicate as many consecutive preferences as he or she wants. No ballot paper is considered invalid just because all of the electoral college member's preferences are not marked.
Despite the fact that there have only been 14 Presidents since Dr Rajendra Prasad won the first two elections, the Presidential election in 2022 will be India's 16th. Presidential Elections in India have previously taken place in 1952, 1957, 1962, 1967, 1969, 1974, 1977, 1982, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007, 2012, and 2017.
The Opposition leaders in India have "decided to field a common candidate who can truly serve as custodian of the Constitution and stop the Modi government from doing further damage to Indian democracy and India's social fabric."
The decision was taken in an Opposition Leaders' meeting convened by West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee on June 15.
Now, on June 21, the opposition parties will gather again to discuss the presidential candidate. The meeting will be led by NCP chief Sharad Pawar, with representatives from at least 17 political parties expected to attend.
After Sharad Pawar declined to run, the parties must come to an agreement on a candidate's name.
Despite the backing from Opposition parties, the Nationalist Congress Party chief Sharad Pawar and National Conference (NC) vice president Dr Farooq Abdullah have withdrawn names from the presidential race.
Neither the government nor the opposition has named a candidate for the presidential election yet. Some leaders, on the other hand, have shown an interest in participating in the race.
The JD(U) has already set the cat among the pigeons by hinting that Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar might run for president. Shravan Kumar, a JD(U) leader and Kumar's cabinet colleague, has openly said that Kumar "can be a good candidate for the President of India."
Only a formal announcement of candidates, including by the NDA, of which the JD(U) is a part, might put an end to the ongoing round of speculations.
Former Bengal Governor Gopalkrishna Gandhi, the grandson of Mahatma Gandhi, has been seen as the front-runner to become the opposition’s choice for the top election.
Gandhi contested for Vice President of India as the consensus opposition candidate in 2017 but lost to M Venkaiah Naidu in the election. According to sources, some opposition leaders called Gandhi and urged him to consider their offer to enter the race as a joint opposition candidate.
BJP is likely to announce its candidate next week before Prime Minister Narendra Modi's departure to Germany to participate in the G7 summit. Moreover, the saffron party has already constituted a coordination committee consisting of 14 members, with Union Jal Shakti Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat as convenor.
During the 2017 election, the NDA surprised many by nominating Ram Nath Kovind, the then-Governor of Bihar and a low-profile Dalit leader. He easily triumphed. We've seen how the BJP has won over big portions of the Dalit population in elections with this and other similar initiatives.
Now - from governors to tribal leaders and even a former Lok Sabha speaker - the BJP has a glut of possible candidates to choose from.
The NDA may repeat incumbent President Kovind, while some reports say Karnataka Governor and Dalit leader Thawar Chand Gehlot, Telangana Governor Tamilsai Soundararajan, and former Lok Sabha Speaker Sumitra Mahajan may be considered for the top post.
Union minister Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi also suits the BJP’s strategy of reaching out to electorally significant communities, leaving the opposition with little choice. Notably, he is a Shia Muslim and his wife is a Hindu.
Kerala Governor Mohammad Arif Khan is also a probable NDA candidate.
There are two possible outcomes.
#1
Going by simple political arithmetic, the BJP had somewhat fewer numbers than the entire Opposition in terms of strength in Parliament and state assemblies despite its staggering numbers in the Lok Sabha.
In the electoral college, the combined strength of all opposition parties in Parliament and assemblies accounts for 51.1 percent of total points, compared to the BJP's 48.9%. That implies the NDA is 2.2 percentage points behind the opposition as a whole.
To win the presidential election, the BJP needs to maintain its whole base united and acquire external support of more than 1.1 percent, or 11,990 points.
The figures could be sending a warning that the BJP could lose the contest for Rashtrapati Bhavan.
But hold on a second. For this, there is only one magical requirement: political utopia. To stop the BJP juggernaut from driving up to the top of Raisina Hill in Delhi, the entire opposition, or at least the majority of it, must come together. It would be the first time in the last seven years if that happened. It could also signal the beginnings of a new political paradigm after 2014.
#2
If the entire opposition fails to form political chemistry and remains arithmetically divided, the BJP will have its choice of candidates to dwell in Rashtrapati Bhavan until 2027.
